Campaign Resumes With The Throne Speech

But will there be an election this fall? I still doubt it.

Yes, we saw Gilles Duceppe coming up with an ultimatum to the Conservative minority government. Stephan Dion announced his conditions few days later. While Jack Layton hasn't yet outlined his plans for a vote on the Throne Speech, it's likely the NDP will vote agaist it. So it may seem like the opposition parties are determined to bring down the government. But will they actually do that?

Let's try to figure out who's going to benefit the most if elections take place in late November. The public opinion polls can produce different numbers, but overall results show that both the Liberals and Conservatives are slightly down, while the NDP has maintaned its support. Thus - even the NDP is unlikely to benefit from the fall election. The biggest winner is the Green party - its support is way up. But they don't have any seats, so they can't vote against the Throne Speech. The biggest loser is the Bloc, which is way down.

Some of the polls suggest the Block went down to as low as 5% nationally (barely a 20% support in Quebec). Others give the Bloc 7-8% (30% or so in Quebec). Still, that's an all-time low, not seen since early 1990s. The Block has just lost one of the ridings that used to be its stronghold since the party came into being; in another riding, the Conservatives managed to narrow the gap to just 5% (down from 32% gap on the election day). If Duceppe dares to bring down the government - he'll come back with the lowest number of seats ever.

Another player who obviously won't benefit from the fall election is Stephane Dion. First and foremost - his party doesn't have the funds for another election campaign. They still owe $3.6 million for the past campaign expenses. With the new financing rules they can no longer host $5000 a plate fundraising dinners or rely on a supporter's child to dig out $5400 off his piggy-bank. Plus, there are many in the party that are upset with Dion's leadership. They may not say it aloud, but there aren't going to help Dion either. (Let alone the rumors that some of them would even resort to sabotage, just to get rid of Dion.) It's obvious that unlike Lester Pearson and John Turner, Stephan Dion will not be given a second chance if he loses the next election.

And, finally, we've got the Conservatives. Some may suggest they could try to orchestrate their own defeat, in an attempt to win majority. Still, it doesn't seem like there is a possibility for a majority government. Moreover, after making quite a few concessions to the opposition, the Conservatives are risking to lose some of their traditional supporters. So far the government has already outlined its preferred date for the next election - October 16, 2009, as per the fixed election date legislation. And I would say - they better use those two years to show the small-c Conservatives that we've got a Conservative minority government, not a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition.

So what can we expect this fall? It would be naive to assume that Harper won't react to numerous threats to bring down his government. Most likely, the Speech from the Throne will be composed in the way that it could be used as a government agenda in the Commons, if the opposition lets it pass or it could be used as a campaign platform if the opposition triggers an election.

One more thing we could expect shortly after a Throne Speech is the Economic and Fiscal update. With all the election talk in the air, this could become a mini-budget, just as it did in 2000 and 2005. Since the vote over the Throne speech would be just days away the government may simply have nothing to lose by bringing a series of broad-base tax cuts to a vote in the Commons. If the opposition lets it pass - we've got an accomplishment for the Conservative government. If not - it will be the Conservative party campaign issue and it will be Harper's turn to ask Dion whether or not he is going to repeal those tax cuts if elected.

Will the Liberals and the Block dare to go ahead and bring down the government in those circumstances? I doubt it. Most likely, they'll agree on a symbolic amendment, which would allow one of the opposition parties to save face. Or they'll vote against the speech, but with only half of their caucus present.