A Coalition? I Still Doubt It.

A Liberal/NDP coalition is regarded as the most possible outcome. It almost looks like such move was planned in advance. That explains why every prominent Liberal and New Democrat started mentioning some "other constitutional options" as soon as the fiscal update was unveiled, rejecting the possibility of a snap election. But are we actually going to end up being governed by a weak Liberal/NDP coalition for the next 200 days or so? I doubt it, and here's why.

First of all - there are still speculations over the leadership. While some sources suggest that the Liberal motion has already won the approval of both prospective partners, there are other sources reporting that the NDP and the Bloc may refuse to support the coalition if it means installing Dion as Prime Minister.

The Liberal motion means just that. While it doesn't specify who is going to lead the "viable alternative government" which "can be formed within the present House of Commons", it's obvious that if Harper fails to win confidence in the Parliament, Dion is the next in line. With the leadership question not fully settled, there's still a possibility of an opposition party trying to amend the motion in an attempt to block Dion from becoming the next Prime Minister.

But what if an alternative leader is found? Will Dion agree to step down? Obviously not. If Dion wasn't ready to step down in mid-October, when all signs were pointing to yet another 2-3 years of Conservative rule - why would he step down now, when his party has a real chance of forming the government? And let's not forget the Liberal leadership contestants, none of whom is willing to see their rival (or any prominent Liberal MP) becoming an interim Prime Minister.

But what if the opposition parties agree on Dion's premiership? What if we do end up with a weak Liberal/NDP coalition, supported by the Bloc? That would be dream come true for Dion and the worst nightmare for whoever succeeds him as a Liberal leader.

Dion is a lame duck. He's got nothing to lose and he's looking at a few months of opposition-free rule. By the time Dion and his Cabinet Ministers are sworn in, the Parliament will have been prorogued for Christmas break. Up until mid-February, Dion and his cabinet could rule unopposed. Then there's another Parliamentary session with another Throne speech - an address of a lame-duck Prime Minister to a stillborn Parliament. What kind of priorities could such a throne speech contain, except for the tax-and spend budget? This budget, which is all but guaranteed to include either tax hikes or multi-billion dollar deficits for both 2008/09 and 2009/10 (if not both) will become Dion's only legacy. Then, once the new Liberal leader is elected, Dion will step down, leaving it up to his successor to clean up the mess. "You wanted to get rid of me? You got it, buddies!"

Any coalition between the three opposition parties is going to hurt the Liberals on the long run. The NDP and the Bloc will be campaigning on their actual achievements. For them, being a part of the governing coalition alone is a great success. But what is a success for them - is regarded as a failure for the Liberals. They'll be the ones taking the blame for everything that will have gone wrong under Dion's short-lived premiership. And of course they'll be hammered from every side. From their used-to be coalition partners - for not doing enough. From the Conservatives - for doing too much wrong. And from the Greens - for ditching an environment-friendly, pro-carbon tax leader.

To make things worse - it would be the second election campaign in just 8-months time. Many voters would still remember that it all began with the Liberals leading the rebellion over a $1.95 per vote subsidy. And as if that wasn't bad enough - even with the subsidy intact, the Liberals just won't have the money to finance another campaign. But a governing coalition that is 41 seat short of a majority would be just too weak to last any longer.

So no matter what the Liberal leadership hopefuls say out loud - they wouldn't want to install a lame-duck interim Prime Minister that would share power (officially and unofficially) with two left-wing parties. Especially when Canada is on a verge of a recession. Especially when another election is expected just weeks after the country's first deficit budget in a decade. Of course, they won't openly rebel against Dion. But they won't stand idly by and watch Dion taking the party on a suicide mission either. So when the Liberal motion is voted on - there's no doubt that Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff will be in their seats. But some 20 of their backbench supporters - most likely won't.