Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Numbers that don't add up

Here's a mathematical question:
You have a province where only 13% would approve abortions for financial reasons and 18% are ok with abortion if a woman is not ready to raise a child. The province is located in a region where only 21% believe that abortions should be tax-funded. So, if you were a mathematician, how would you come up with a claim that 57% of New Brunswickers want "better access to abortion services"?

What is impossible for a mathematician appears to be an easy job for the pollsters and CBC news reporters. Not sure how they did it, but I could guess they've just added the numbers together. That's what it looks like judging by their opening paragraph. They start by saying that 57% want abortions to be available in clinics and that another 40% would agree under certain strict conditions. CBC doesn't specify how many didn't agree. They leave it for us to do the math and they expect us to conclude he number is just 3%.

3% disagree with "better access to abortions" in a province where nearly 80% wouldn't want abortions tax-funded? In a province where 82% reject the claim that killing the unborn should be a "choice" just because a woman is "not ready" to have a child? Where 87% believe that poverty shouldn't justify abortion either? The numbers clearly do not match.

But how does the rest of the text explain these numbers? It doesn't. After the opening statement we find two paragraphs which tell us how difficult it is to get an abortion in New Brunswick and then another paragraph concludes with the number of people surveyed and the possible margin of error. Then there is an advertisement which takes up the rest of the space, making it look like the article is over. Those curious enough to see if there's anything else under the advertisement need to scroll the page down to see that there are still 5 paragraphs left. The article yet again repeats the 57% statement (this time without the extra 40% agreeing under certain conditions) and only then it reveals the true numbers. Only then we see that Atlantic Canadians are most hesitant to approve abortions when the woman says she's not ready to have a child, at 18 per cent, according to the poll. Only 13 per cent say they would approve an abortion for someone who is financially unable to afford the child. Thanks to the creative design of the page, this will remain unnoticed by most of the readers.

Why? Because CBC management doesn't want to picture pro-lifers as majority. No matter what the poll results are, they'll twist the numbers, trying to prove that most of the people believe what the left-leaning elite wants them to believe and that those who think otherwise are a minority so tiny it might as well be ignored. CBC math tricks could certainly fool some of the readers. But I doubt they could fool Mike Murphy, NB Health Minister when he meets with women's groups later this week to discuss the issue.

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