Thursday, October 16, 2008

Election 2008 — Some More Observations

Tactical deals instead of running full slate. For the first time in decades, neither the governing party, nor the official opposition are running full slate of candidates. The Red-Green deal, according to which the Liberals have vacated Central Nova for Elizabeth May is well known. What surprised me is that the Conservatives too have chosen not to run a candidate against André Arthur, an Independent MP from Quebec. Apparently he was deemed "honorary Conservative", just like the Nova Scotia Independent MP Bill Casey was deemed "honorary Green" by Elizabeth May & Co. Is this the beginning of a new trend in Federal politics?

A slap on the face for Stephen Harper. Losing an Alberta seat - I bet he didn't see that coming. Too bad, this came from the wrong side. I would love to see a CHP candidate in one of Alberta's rural ridings winning a few thousand votes, which wouldn't threaten the Conservative incumbent but would clearly show the discontent with the party's swing to the left. Instead, many Alberta Conservatives (including those in Edmonton — Strathcona) chose to stay home, letting the NDP (with the support of disgruntled Liberals) win the riding.

Greens are dollar-green, Liberals are deficit-red. Since the allowance paid to political parties directly depends on the actual number of votes they receive, lower voter turnout would mean less money for the four largest parties, starting as early as this quarter. The Liberals, who've lost some 820,000 votes, will see their allowance plunge by as much as $1.5M a year. Not a good news for a party that is drowning in debt and that doesn't have much luck in fundraising.

The Greens on the other hand are now entitled to more than $1.7M a year for their 940,000 votes. No wonder Elizabeth May has rejected the advice to defect to the Liberals following her defeat in Central Nova. She says that she respects Dion, but not the Liberal party itself. If so then maybe it's Dion who should defect to the Greens and run for the top job soon to be vacated (willingly or not) by Elizabeth May?.. Why not? He's already got an endorsement from the known Sierra Club activist who ran in Central Nova...

Next time you tell a Newfie joke - make it about Danny Williams. Does he truly believe that Dion's carbon tax would be more beneficial for the province (let alone - for Newfoundland's oil industry) than Harper's equalization formula? Well, he's got his dream come true - no Conservative MPs were elected in Newfoundland, leaving the province shut out of the governing caucus. Is he happy now? Not really. Danny, next time endorse the Bloc Quebecois. Once Quebec is out, Ottawa will be much closer.

At least it won't get worseDeborah Gyapong suggests. Sure, we should be happy that at the very least, the government won't try to enshrine abortion in the Charter and that it won't force New Brunswick to pay for clinic abortions on demand. The question is - for how long? What would be the next stage of the government appealing to the left in an attempt to win majority? And even if they don't - how satisfied are we with "same old, same old"? If we want any positive changes - we better start organizing. We need to work within the Conservative party, ensuring that our voices are heard at the most senior levels. But we also need to work from outside, we need to be ready to demonstrate that interests of the Socially Conservative voters can no longer be ignored.

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