Was The Opposition Just Looking For An Excuse?...

As it turns out, an idea of a broad coalition between the three opposition parties wasn't a spontaneous response to an unpopular government policy.

The New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois held talks to form a coalition party well before the opposition's uproar over the government's fiscal update, CTV News has learned.

NDP Leader Jack Layton was in talks with Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe for a "considerable period of time," reported CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife on Sunday.

Layton held a telephone-conference meeting with his caucus Saturday morning that was recorded by a Conservative member. According to the audio tape, Layton appears to take credit for the possibility of a coalition.

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That explains a lot. If such a move was planned well in advance - no wonder the opposition leaders were quick to declare their intention to vote down the proposed fiscal measures, mentioning "some other constitution measures" as an alternative to a snap election. That also explains why Don Newman kept asking every prominent opposition MP whether or not there was a deal in the making between the Liberals and the NDP. (No party was ready to acknowledge that back on Thursday.)

And, if Don Newman has heard some rumors on the opposition deal - Stephen Harper must have heard those rumors too. And that explains the sharp swing to the right. If Stephen Harper knew that Liberals wouldn't abstain this time; that the opposition was just looking for an excuse to topple his government and that no compromise would be likely - no wonder he chose to counter-attack. And, to the surprise of many - he succeeded. No matter what the opposition may say about his government's fiscal policies, in the eyes of the public, this political turmoil is all about the Liberals and NDP getting in bed with the separatists for a $1.95 per vote. No matter what the outcome of the December 8 vote is - this will come back to haunt them.

But there might as well be no vote on December 8th. First of all, the government may fall earlier, during a vote on the routine supply bills. Since those supply bills contain no reference to a "viable alternative government" which "can be formed within the present House of Commons", nothing prevents Harper from seeking dissolution of the House. Blaming the opposition for triggering a Christmas election over what? That's right, over those $1.95 per vote subsidies.

Another option is - once the Parliament passes the supply bills (it's a routine measure that doesn't take long to go through both chambers) Harper may prorogue the Parliament. That will end the session with all the pending bills (including Dion's motion) dying on the order paper. The Parliament then will have to be restarted with another Throne speech. Which will be immediately followed by the new budget speech. And then the opposition may trigger an election if they must. If they just won't let the Conservatives govern - the least the government could do is present its plan to the people and let the people decide whether or not they'd wish to keep it.

And of course - there's still a possibility that the coalition collapses and Dion's motion gets defeated. An extra week could serve as a "cooling-off period". The opposition parties may want more details on the deal before they vote for it - an argument over the details may actually lead to a discord. And of course, there are Liberals. Some of whom may question the wisdom of triggering a snap election or installing a lame-duck PM with an ultra-left coalition just to postpone the very same snap election to after the leadership convention. Especially when the threat of losing the per-vote subsidies if the Conservatives stay in power is no longer imminent. They too may silently sabotage the deal.