The biggest loss is for the Social Conservatives. What could have become a Canadian version of a grass-roots SoCon rebellion, turned out to be a disappointment, to say the least. Sure, unlike Doug Hoffman, Jim Hnatiuk didn't have the powerful endorsements from prominent Conservatives. But, considering that this is a strongly Conservative riding, that voters have already had some experience with showing their discontent with the governing party, considering all the work that Jim has put into the campaign, it was reasonable to expect if not a victory, then at least a breakthrough past the 10% mark.
This didn't happen; most of those who could have supported Jim, either stayed home or held their noses and voted for Scott Armstrong. As result, the Conservatives can keep appealing to the moderate, centrist voters without feeling threatened from the right. We, the Social Conservatives, can expect to be taken for granted - until we finally learn to organize. Yes, we need better organization; better strategists and better marketing for our ideas. Having the best solutions is great, but presenting them in a manner that would inspirit people to get out and vote is essential.
Other than that - not much is going to change. With the four vacant seats splitting evenly between the governing Conservatives and the opposition, the balance of power remains the same as it used to be prior to the by-elections. Even with the two new MPs on board, the Conservatives still need the support of the opposition to pass legislation and to win confidence votes. That also include the vote on the final progress report, mandated by the 2009/10 budget amendment and the vote on the 2010/11 budget itself. Both those voters the government is likely to win.
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