It's hard to believe that the opposition is actually going to force an election just weeks after the last one. And yet all three parties are suggesting that they'll be voting against the fiscal update. Unless at least 20 opposition MPs simply don't show up for vote - the government is outnumbered. And what happens then?
There has been several hints of "another constitutional options" that are "open" in such cases. The most outspoken on the subject is Don Newman. He was quick to ask that question to every opposition MP he was interviewing - could there be an arrangement between the Liberals and the NDP, similar to the one which allowed Ontario Liberals to form a coalition government with the NDP back in 1987? The answers sounded more like "no" rather than "yes". And yet there were all those hints about "other options, rather than going to the polls". So what are those options?
A three-party deal between the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc? Extremely unlikely. So is the Liberal-Bloc coalition, supported by the NDP. A Liberal-NDP coalition then? That's only 114 seats, less the Speaker. Unless at least 32 Bloc MPs (nearly 2/3 of their caucus) agree to support them, Dion/Layton government will last even less than Arthur Meighen's government did back in 1926.
So what other options do they have? It happened once (in 1968) when a lost vote on a money bill didn't trigger an election. Both major parties agreed to treat it as if it had been just an ordinary vote and then voted together for an amended version of the bill. Even if that could be the option - who is going to compromise? We have at least two "in your face" issues - handouts to political parties and a 2-year moratorium on public service strikes. The former threatens to bankrupt the Liberals and inconveniences the Bloc (no more free lunch for the separatists). The latter is unacceptable to the NDP. Backing down on either issue would be a serious "loss of face" for the Conservatives, frustrating most of their supporters.
What else then? An opposition motion for the Governor General not to grant a Royal Recommendation or to refuse Royal Assent for the Conservative money bill? If that goes anywhere beyond the non-binding House motion - that brings us back to a modernized version of a King-Byng Affair. Elected Prime Minister against unelected unaccountable Governor General. Reformers of all stripes will be jumping with joy. The actual King Byng affair led to the Statute of Westminster (1931) which granted the Dominions a de-facto independence from Great Britain. Another crisis of such extent could ruin the system altogether with the dominions becoming independent de-jure. Is Michael Jean willing to take the risk?
What would it be then? An election? That's the way it's always been in those situations. And in fact - there are at least two political parties willing to do just that. The Bloc is looking forward to cash in on the collapsing right-wing vote in Quebec while the NDP has just received the best campaign issue the party could wish for. So when the ways-and-means motion is voted on tomorrow (or - when the actual bill comes to the second reading vote next week) - expect all their MPs to be there and to vote against it. The Conservatives - that's obvious, they'll be there to vote for the motion and to introduce the actual bill if the motion passes. While they could handle another campaign - it's the last thing they'd want now.
And then we have the Liberals. A party that is preparing to elect a new leader. A party which has no cash to finance another campaign and which is unlikely to get any new loans, because they're about to lose their major source of income. A party that will be vilified by the average voters, most of whom believe the per-vote handouts should be abolished. A party that will be attacked from both the right and the left. The Conservatives will campaign on their fiscal plan which gives us perfectly balanced budgets in tough times. The NDP has just got a perfect campaign issue, so they'll be campaigning for the civil servants' vote, hammering the Liberals from the left. What will the Liberals campaign on? Carbon tax? Multi-billion bailouts that would bring us back into chronic deficits?
Here's what I believe is most likely to happen. When it comes to the actual vote, some 20 Liberal MPs simply won't be there. Some of them will probably be stuck in traffic, others will stay home because of some mysterious flu... But the ways-and-means motion will pass. And so will the money bill that is to be introduced following the motion. The opposition then may pass its own motion, calling on the Governor General not to grant the Royal Recommendation to the bill and not to assent it into law. There will be lots of filibustering in the Senate. But there will be neither a snap election, nor another King-Byng affair.
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