HD Poll — Final Warning For Harper?

Re-energize your base - or else. That's pretty much the message from the recent Harris/Decima poll. The Conservatives are at 29%, the Liberals - at 27% and the NDP - at 20%. The provincial breakdown looks even worse - as if the Liberal lead in Ontario and the Maritimes wasn't bad enough, the Conservatives are trailing the NDP in British Columbia and they are not that far ahead of the dippers in the Prairies (39% to 31%). Translated to seats, this breakdown would result in a three-way split between the moderate centrists, the left and the ultra-left: 104 for the Conservatives, 101 for the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc end up 46 and 56 seats respectively.

Now what about the right wing? Those just wouldn't vote. If the HD poll results translated into an actual vote, we'd probably see voter turnout plummeting to below 50%, with most of those getting out and voting being opposition supporters, eager to finally get rid of Stephen Harper's government. As for the Conservatives - at least one in three of them would just stay home, joining those 4 in 10 registered voters who didn't bother to vote in any of the past Federal elections.

The Conservative voter base is apathetic to say the least. They don't yet see the Christian Heritage Party as a viable alternative and even if they do have a CHP candidate on the ballot - many will be reluctant to support him. (Somehow they believe that it's better not to vote at all than to vote their conscience and "split the vote".) But, unless the Liberals come up with yet another controversial tax hike proposal, something the Conservative base could be energized against, they'd see no point in supporting the party that has moved so far to the left in a pathetic attempt to attract the former PC and the disgruntled Liberal voters.

Noting that the Prime Minister's spokesman, Andrew MacDougall, has said the PM would compel his cabinet ministers to vote against Mr. Bruinooge's private member's bill, Mr. Hnatiuk mused, "Perhaps we need legislation to protect MPs from coercion, too."

"This was supposed to be a 'conservative' government. But we usually associate such high-handed action with those on the left," said Hnatiuk. "The Prime Minister's dictatorial stance denies 36 ridings a free vote for their MPs."

That some Conservative members have difficulty with such an attitude is apparent by former executive members of Conservative Electoral District Associations (EDAs) now joining CHP Canada. In eastern Canada, past Alliance EDA executive Hilda Stevens has joined CHP Canada and serves as Interim President for Nova Scotia; in central Canada, G.J. Rancourt, former candidate hopeful and member of the Conservative executive of his EDA, is now candidate and CEO for CHP Canada in his EDA; in western Canada, past executive member in his Conservative EDA, Frank Hilliard, is now energetically building for CHP Canada.

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That may not be enough to bring the CHP to the level of a major national party, but that should still be a warning sign for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party. They better not take the small-c Conservative vote for granted. After all, we know that even when there's no viable alternative on the ballot, so many right-wing voters tend to simply abstain from voting. If Harper goes ahead and alienates pro-life voters even further - he's guaranteed to lose the next election whenever it may come.

BTW - it may surprise Stephen Harper and his red Tory advisers, but during the maternal health debate, when the Conservative party stood firm against including abortions in maternal health funding for the third world, its poll numbers were much higher. If that doesn't show the party executives what side they should be on - I don't know what does.